Two recent polls indicating a slim majority of California voters favor a statewide ballot initiative requiring greater parental notification before teenagers have abortions also highlight the measure's strong support from Latinos and growing approval from women and Democrats.

A Survey USA election poll conducted in early October found that 52 percent of Californians intend to vote for Proposition 4, also known as "Sarah's Law," requiring parental or close adult family member notification 48 hours prior to the termination of a minor's pregnancy. A Field Poll released Sept. 26 indicated that 49 percent of California voters favor Prop. 4, while 41 percent oppose it and 10 percent remain undecided.

"What this election will come down to for Prop. 4 is the undecided vote among two groups: Latinos and Independent/Democrat white women voters," said Charles Gallagher, chief strategist and campaign manager for Prop. 4.

Latinos in the September Field Poll appeared to be favoring the measure 62 percent to 31 percent, a 31-point margin. In 2006, the second consecutive year in which a similar parental notification initiative failed at the California polls, the margin among Latinos was 22 percentage points, according to Field Poll officials.

The Survey USA poll showed Democratic support (38 percent) and women's support (52 percent) for Prop. 4 increased since 2006, when polls found only 33 percent of Democrat voters and 44 percent of women supported a parental notification ballot measure. Regionally, support for Prop. 4 is strongest in the Central Valley (60 percent) and the Inland Empire (60 percent), with narrow approval in the greater Los Angeles area (51 percent).

"I think this will be passed by a few percentage points," said Gallagher. "We've done a targeted effort toward the Latino community including bringing in ("Bella" film star) Eduardo Verastegui for a 30-second TV ad in Spanish airing statewide this week in Southern California and certain Central Valley markets."

While many Prop. 4 proponents are hopeful the anticipated high presidential voter turnout --- including an estimated Latino electorate share of 17 percent --- will boost passage of the measure, a longtime election observer warns the increase may not be enough.

"I think you'll see the voter turnout increase for everybody, maybe a little bit more for Latinos" by a slight increase of one or two percentage points, said Fernando Guerra, associate professor of political science at Loyola Marymount University and director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles.

He cautions that, with the increasing edge Democrats have in California, many Republican conservative voters likely to vote for Prop. 4 may stay home if Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has clearly won by the time the polls are closing.

"We'd like to think the small percentile difference [indicated by the polls] will be in our favor," said Bob Cielnicky, founder of Life Priority Network. He says Prop. 4, with its broadening of notification to include a close adult relative, addresses voters' concern for girls who might have to notify abusive parents about a pregnancy.

"Notifying an immediate adult family member as an alternative to [an abusive] parent has blunted Planned Parenthood's argument that passage of the initiative could be dangerous to a minor," said Cielnicky.

"I think Prop. 4 has a better chance of winning [than previous similar measures]," said Sister of Social Service Paula Vandegaer, program director of International Life Services and member of the archdiocesan Commission for Catholic Life Issues. "The Yes on 4 flyer showing the number of cases of women hurt by abortion because their parents didn't know [they had the procedure] helps people understand the victimization and the cover-up. People seem to be rallying around. I have a lot of hope this time," said Sister Vandegaer.

"If Prop. 4 does pass, proponents owe a debt of gratitude to Prop. 8," the initiative seeking a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, said Carol Hogan, director of pastoral programs and communications for the California Catholic Conference. Marvin Hayes, pro-life chair for the Knights of Columbus, agrees that voters in support of Prop. 8 may also be in favor of Prop. 4.

"I think Prop. 4 will pass because Prop. 8 is carrying a lot of weight" in the electorate, said Hayes. Walking his precinct last weekend, he saw a lot of Prop. 8 lawn signs and an occasional Prop. 4 sign. This Saturday, eleven days before the Nov. 4 election, a group of Knights and Prop. 4 proponents in San Bernardino will be making calls to Knights and parishioners in support of the parental notification initiative.

"Prop. 4 doesn't stop an abortion, it just gives the chance for a parent to be notified on a decision which will affect the family forever," said Msgr. John Moretta, pastor of Resurrection Church and board member of the East Los Angeles Pregnancy Center.

"I think it will pass because it makes sense. Every mom I've talked to would want to know if their daughter is having an abortion," he added.

Editor's note: More than 30 states have passed some type of family involvement law requiring parental notification before termination of a minor's pregnancy. For pregnant teenage girls in abusive family relationships, Sarah's Law enables them to notify another adult family member, including a grandparent, aunt, uncle or a sibling 21 years or older. Exceptions are also made for medical emergencies and emancipated minors. To view the new Spanish ad with actor Eduardo Verastegui, log on to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVhDl-NGgRY. The new English ad, "Sorry to Burst Your Bubble" is available for viewing at www.YESon4.net.