How would parishes in the Archdiocese of Los Angeles function if they knew there was no priest-pastor available to serve? What would they do if they knew they would be clustered or even consolidated with one or more neighboring parishes?

These are among the questions parishes are being asked to reflect on, discuss and answer in a parish viability study currently being conducted throughout the archdiocese. The study --- entitled the Parish Organization Planning Report --- is a means to assess and plan for the future pastoral needs of the archdiocese and each individual parish.

Parish responses are due by June 1, after which their answers will be tabulated, and then discussed in November at a conference with Cardinal Roger Mahony, the auxiliary bishops, deans and the archdiocesan leadership team. The results of the survey will be made available to the parishes.

In the survey, parishes are asked to assess their "most significant strengths or characteristics" and their most pressing "pastoral needs" that need to be implemented. Then, they are asked to consider "how to best provide for the spiritual and pastoral needs of the parish" if there were only one full-time priest, or none.

To that end, they are presented six possible scenarios to consider and rank in order of preference:

---Consolidation (the parish is no longer viable as a fully operative parish and could be consolidated with a neighboring parish).

---Twinning (one pastor leads two or more autonomous parishes).

---Clustering (two or more pastors or parish life directors administer semi-autonomous parishes).

---Parish Life Director (the parish is led by a deacon, religious or layperson, but not a priest).

---Ethnic/Culture Center (the parish is converted to an ethnic or cultural ministry center).

---Closure (the parish is no longer viable and should be closed).

Parish closures --- which have occurred in recent years in some large U.S. dioceses --- is the least preferred alternative, said the survey's director, Deacon Gus Sebenius, regional assistant to San Gabriel Region Auxiliary Bishop Gabino Zavala. "At this point," he said, "closure of a parish is a possibility that we don't want to talk about."

"But," he added, "it's also true that, given the increase in the Catholic population and the decline in the number of available priests, we need to consider an array of options."

Currently, there are 288 parishes (plus 11 Eastern Rite Catholic churches) that serve more than 4.5 million Catholics in the three-county Archdiocese of Los Angeles. Of the 288, 218 are administered by archdiocesan priests, 68 by religious order priests and two have Parish Life Directors (both women religious).

The number of active diocesan priests in 2005 totaled 361, with 311 in parish ministry. The average age of non-retired diocesan priests was 55, with a median age of 60. Recent ordination classes from St. John's Seminary (since 1999) have produced, on average, five new priests per year, with their ages trending upward (that is, more new priests ordained in their 30s and 40s, or older).

Performing this process, said Deacon Sebenius, will allow parishes to better understand not only what the future may bring, but how to best prepare. "They will hopefully get a better understanding of who they are, where their strengths and needs are, and what steps they can take now to prepare for the day when a priest-pastor may not be available," he said.

The study is the result of several meetings held since last summer attended by the auxiliary bishops, their regional assistants and deans of the 20 deaneries in the five pastoral regions. During these meetings, several models of surveys were suggested; the final, approved model was sent to parishes at the beginning of the year.

Parishes are reminded, gently, that participating in this process is not optional. "They need to understand," said Deacon Sebenius, "that this is important to the life of the archdiocese."