Politicial analysts said that the clean sweep defeat of eight ballot initiatives in California's Nov. 8 special election represents major dissatisfaction with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's reform agenda.
And, said one, this "Schwarzenegger referendum effect" may have doomed passage of Proposition 73, the parental notification initiative for minors seeking abortions.
"Under other circumstances, Proposition 73 might have done better," said Helen Boutrous, assistant professor of political science at Mount St. Mary's College. "It did surprise me it did as well as it did as compared to other propositions."
Proposition 73, garnered the most "yes" votes --- 3,130,062, or 47.4 percent --- of the eight failed propositions, losing by approximately 335,000 votes out of nearly 6.6 million votes cast.
"Governor Schwarzenegger needs to re-evaluate and reassess his entire reform agenda," said Boutrous. She noted election results "mirrored" the last presidential election with majorities residing in coastal counties mostly voting "blue" (supporting Democratic Party positions) and majorities in inland California counties mostly voting "red" (supporting Republican Party positions).
"People are polarizing not only in their politics but in their residential geographic region," said Boutrous. She added this "urban/suburban split" is a problem when trying to appeal to voters in an election.
Fernando Guerra, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University, said the Republican governor made a strategic mistake when he "assumed" there would be no organized opposition to the initiatives, especially Props 74, 75, 76 affecting several groups, including teachers, nurses, firefighters, police officers and other public employees.
"The governor has to completely re-do his strategy and govern by consensus," said Guerra. Californians, he explained, just didn't see the relevance of a special election.
"Clearly, the voters sent a message saying: 'We don't like this legislating through initiatives,'" said Guerra who, while he thought all the initiatives would lose, was surprised by the dramatic margins of defeat.
Judy Nadler, a senior fellow at Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University, said the special election sent several messages to legislators in Sacramento.
"Taxpayers were concerned about the election's $50 million cost," said Nadler, a former Santa Clara mayor. "While the special election clearly represented the governor's priorities, it didn't reflect the highest priorities of the electorate."
According to Nadler, members of the public also were disenchanted with the bewildering set of initiatives, especially dueling drug Propositions 78 and 79. "The election became overwhelming, confusing and a real turnoff," Nadler said. She summarized election results as voters' way of saying to legislators: "We elected you and we expect you to all work together."
Disappointed Proposition 73 supporters expressed hope the election increased people's awareness of the lack of parental notification in California for minors seeking abortions.
"Although Proposition 73 did not pass, the campaign provided us all a valuable opportunity to educate the public, many of whom were unaware that children in public school grades 7-12 could be excused for confidential medical services, including abortion, without their parents' knowledge," said Ned Dolejsi, executive director of the bishops' California Catholic Conference.
"We would like to personally thank all of our clergy, diocesan and parish staff, and the many volunteers who spent countless hours in this effort," Dolejsi added. "The close vote count can be attributed almost entirely to the incredible grassroots effort throughout the state to which Catholics made an outstanding contribution."
Matson Breakey, campaign consultant for the California Parents' Rights Coalition, said she was inspired by the fact Proposition 73 only lost by a couple of percentage points in spite of the amount of money spent to defeat all the propositions on the ballot. According to Breakey, the election campaign surfaced problems within the abortion industry that "we believe can now be solved legislatively, and we hope to be able to do so."
Among those problems, said Breakey, is the lack of reporting to the Department of Health Services regarding how many minors receive abortions annually. "We know precisely how many underage girls carry a baby to fruition, or how many have miscarriages, but we have no idea how many underage girls get abortions," Breakey said.
Another problem is the lack of reporting to authorities when there is a case of potential statutory rape, Breakey noted. "Planned Parenthood does not seem to care if a 13-year-old girl has been impregnated by a 22-year-old man," Breakey declared. "This is statutory rape whether it was consensual or not and it should be reported to authorities."
Barbara Kerr, president of the California Teachers Association, issued a post-election statement praising the defeat of Governor Schwarzenegger's "special interest" initiatives, Propositions 74, 75 and 76. "Let's hope the governor has finally heard the real will of the people and understands that his agenda was wrong for California. The people of California want real solutions that include adequate funding of our schools, protecting our minimum school funding guarantee and affordable health care for all," said Kerr. |