Given the recent wave of parish closings across the United States, what will the future Catholic parish look like? Future parishes will have more lay leadership and will be more relational --- more inclusive, universal and encompassing, writes Father Frank Kelley, pastor of Sacred Heart Church in the Boston Archdiocese. Father Kelley, a board member of the National Pastoral Life Center in New York, says he draws hope for the future from the strong faith of so many lay people. Parish life will flourish where pastors learn to listen to the people, he says. Dean R. Hoge, noted researcher and professor at The Catholic University of America in Washington, predicts that parishes of the future will be larger and that fewer of them will have a resident priest. But he hopes bishops no longer will force parish closings. Research indicates that parishioners prefer operating without a resident priest to having their parish close, he says.

First, they will be significantly larger
By Dean R. Hoge

We can predict the characteristics of Catholic parishes in America in 2020 by looking at current trends and projecting ahead. While not foolproof, as a rule this sort of projection is good for 10 or 15 years.

Let's look at three current trends. First, the number of parishes has not been changing. In 1985 there were 19,244 parishes nationwide, and in 2004 there were 19,026.

Second, average parish size has been increasing. In 1985 it was 2,718 persons, and in 2004 it was 3,380. The total U.S. Catholic population is growing at about 10 percent per decade, and since the number of parishes is constant, average parish size will grow at about 10 percent per decade. In 2010, average parish size will be about 3,500.

Third, 17 percent of parishes in 2004 had no resident priest, and the trend is upward. We can expect that in 2010 it will be 20 percent and in 2020 more than 25 percent.

Who will manage these parishes? Deacons and lay parish ministers will have a much greater role due to the declining numbers of priests. The number of paid lay ministers working in parishes increased by about 60 percent or 70 percent in the last decade; the increase will continue.

In sum, I confidently predict that parishes in 2020 will be larger, that a lower percentage will have resident priests and that lay ministers will carry out many tasks.

I have three recommendations for the future of parishes, all well-grounded in research.

First, don't force parishes to close. Catholics love their parishes and are resentful when someone from outside closes them. Bishops should no longer force parish closings but should let the lay people in each parish determine their future. Forcing parish closures by edict is too alienating! Let the laity decide.

Anyone who takes parish closings lightly should read "They Call Him Pastor," by Ruth Wallace, a report on visits to 20 parishes now headed by deacons or laymen. Wallace tells us that the laity in all 20 parishes clearly preferred operating without a resident priest to having their parish closed! In every case they quickly accepted lay parish administrators and contributed enough funds to pay their salaries.

Remember: People love their parishes and think of them as their home. Who wants to see their home closed?

A few former national parishes that served one ethnic group may need to be closed, if the surrounding ethnic neighborhood is no more. So I believe in closing some of these, but not parishes in suburbs or small towns.

Second, support the new lay ministers. They are asking for more job security, higher salaries, more autonomy and public recognition by pastors and bishops. Why not have a laying-on-of-hands ceremony attended by a bishop for all new lay ministers?

Third, if a parish cannot be small, it at least should act small. Many parishes are too large to be effective spiritual communities, so they should launch as many small groups and person-to-person programs as possible. These include charismatic prayer groups, prayer circles, faith-sharing evenings, parenting seminars and social witness committees.

Many lay people who hunger for spiritual growth and meaningful relationships find them in small groups.

We can't reverse the megatrends, but steps like these can be taken to make parish life more spiritually nourishing.

Dean Hoge is a professor of sociology at The Catholic University of America in Washington.

A place where everybody knows your name
By Rev. Frank Kelley

Taking the long view of 20 years, I am hopeful for parishes in America. The immediate situation, however, is not as hopeful. The sexual abuse crisis and now the closing of many parishes and schools make these trying times for Catholics.

In the face of these current challenges, we need to figure out a pastoral strategy for relating to each other. But we also need to remember that outside one's family, the parish is the common place Catholics gather. People take the parish seriously. Active, churchgoing lay Catholics are angry, yet somewhat confident about their parish community.

Four years ago the adjacent parish of St. Andrew's asked to join with us at Sacred Heart, Roslindale, in the Boston Archdiocese. We welcomed this parish; we believe that is what a church should do. Nevertheless, closing a parish and joining another community is very difficult. My opinion is that it will take at least 15 years for the newcomers to adjust, and about half of St. Andrew's members will not make the transition and join Sacred Heart.

News media types finally have stopped asking the stupid question about the sexual abuse scandal: Does this weaken your faith? One mother looked at them with disdain and answered, "No dear, I'm angry." Other Catholics have departed. Our parish had a decline of 21 percent in weekly Mass attendance over the past two years. These Catholics we will not see for a while.

What will the parish look like in 20 years? Attendance may decline, but lay participation and decision making will increase. I've watched this happen in our parish over the past 10 years. I imagine many pastors can document this.

A second characteristic is that parish life will be more and more relational. People know and care for one another in parishes. There is a deep human and religious need to be in a place where everybody knows your name. The question we face is how to develop and foster a relational culture in our communities.

A new pastoral strategy is needed for being catholic with a small c: inclusive, universal, encompassing.

A third characteristic of the future parish will be found in sacramental life. We still will gather and worship God each Sunday.

Each Sunday I ask myself, "Why did they come back?" This was especially my reflection as Boston became the epicenter of the sexual abuse scandal. The simple, yet complex, answer is that these people believe.

Here I draw the most hope for the future. These Catholic lay men and women believe; they will hold us together.

The Catholic Church is like a three-legged stool: bishops, clergy and religious men and women, and laity. If these three groups decide and act alone, the church falls over into one or another mess. However, when these three groups hold together, often in tension, then God's promptings are heard and acted upon.

What should we do? The simple answer is to learn how to act like a church. We need to know how to see, judge and act together. Parish life will flourish where pastors learn to listen to the people.

Father Frank Kelley is pastor of Sacred Heart Church, Roslindale, in the Boston Archdiocese.